AWIO20 FMEE 061057
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2010/10/06
AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
In relationship with an active MJO phasis over the eastern part of
the Indian Ocean, deep convective activity extends east to 75E on
the both sides of the equator.
This activity is fed by a sustained westerly equatorial flow.
Over our AOR, deep convective activity is moderate within the near
equatorial trough extending north of 13S , east of 70E.
This thundery activity is flutuating but shows a persistant cluster
between 75E ad 80E over the pas 24 hours.
Last Meteosat7 satellite imagery shows a partially exposed low
level circulation centred at 1000Z near 4.1S/84.3E.
MSLP is estimated at 1005 hpa with maximum winds near the center at
about 15kt, locally reaching 20/25kt.
Existing over the equatorial edeg of the upper level ridge, this
low is undergoing a rather strong easterly to north-easterly
vertical windshear, unfavourable for intensification.
Most of available NWP models analyse this low and are in good
agreement to forecast a eastwards track then
next night a
recurving southwestwards motion on the northern edge of the
subtropical high pressures.
Linked to this windshear , potential for intensification remains
quasi null within the next 48 hours.
Then ,
energetic environment will become unfavourable over SST
under 26 C south of 13S.
For the next 72 hours, there is no potential for the development of
a tropical depression.

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