AWIO20 FMEE 071110
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2010/10/07
AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
Convection exists within a large low pressure area, located north
of 14S and East of 80E. Deep convection remains fluctuating and
scattered. The low level circulation monitored during the last 48
hours has dissipated within this
area.
Last Meteosat7 animated imagery depicts a recent low level
circulation located at 1000Z near 14S/80E.
Minimal pressure is estmated at 1005hPa and maximum winds near the
center at 15/20kt, locally 25kt in the southern sector due to the
gradient with the subtropical high pressures.
This low is located below the equatorial edge of the upper level
ridge and is also under the influence of moderate north-easterly
vertical wind shear.
Most of available NWP models analyse this low and are in good
agreement to forecats a southwestward motion on the northern edge
of the subtropical high pressures.
In relation with the vertical wind shear and cool SST (below 26 C
south of 13S), environmental conditions of this low are expected to
remain unfavorable for further intensification.
For the next 72 hours, there is no potential for the development of
a tropical depression.

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