AWIO20 FMEE 201144
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2010/12/20 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
In the Mozambique channel and also west of 52E
Monsoon flow extends far in the south and feeds a locally strong
but disorganized deep convective activity extending from 14S to 30S.
Between 52E and 70E :
Monsoon flow feeds a weak activity monsoon trough existing north of
10S.
East of 70E :
There is no monsoon flow over this part and basin shows a Near
Equotorial Trough
pattern stretching along 11S axis.
Associated deep convective activity is scattered and mainly
concentrates in the vicinity of a low level circulation
centered
at 1030Z near 10.5S/81.7E.
Recent satellite imagery shows a well defined low level circulation
totally exposed
west of the deep convection.
The last Ascat swaths (19/1625Z et 20/0330Z) reveal a
small but
well defined circulation with winds not exceeding 20kt near the
center. MSLP is estimated at 1004 hPa.
In relationship with a persisting easterly vertical windshear and a
lack of equatorward low level inflow , this low is not expected to
deepen significantly within the next 36 hours.
On and after wednesday , low level inflow is expected to improve on
the both sides of this low but vertical windshear is forecast
remaining not favourable for significant intensification.
Some of the available NWP models (Aladin-Reunion,
Ukmet) forecast
this low more clearly deepening within the second part of the week.
Other low level clockwise circulations exist in the trade winds
flow
but without associated deep convective activity (at 1000Z :
1009hPa near 13.9S/63.2E
and also 1012hpa near 19.8S/71.0E) .
This lows have no potential for further intensification.
For the next 36 hours, development of a tropical depression
is not expected on our basin. Potential becomes poor beyond.

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