AWIO20 FMEE 120932
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2011/01/12 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Neant.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
Transequatorial flow is established west of 65E, but remains weak.
It feeds a scattered ITCZ extending between 4S and 15S East of 55E.
Between 55E and 70E, a broad
low level circulation persists
(remnants of Tropical Depression nr3). According to the latest
satellite imagery data , LLCC is located near 13.7S/62.3E, tracking
slowly southward within the latest 24 hours. The Minimum Sea Level
Pressure is estimated at 1007 hPa (Buoy 53549) and winds at about
10/15 kt. Convection remains moderate and very fluctuating and
rather far from the LLCC in the northern semi-circle of the
circulation.
Upper level conditions are quite good, but low level environment is
still unfavourable (lack of moisture and convergence due to weak
monsoon flow).
For the next three days, available NWP models are agree with a
west-south-westwards motion of the LLCC on the north-western edge
of the subtropical ridge.
Monsoon flow is expected to weaken for the next 48 hours. Low level
environment remains also unfavorable for reintensification of the
system. Available NWP models deepen it sligthly for the next trhee
days, but not significantly.
There is no other suspect area in the basin.
For the next 72 hours,
development of a tropical depression is not expected.

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