Session Overview
TUKUP7: Warning plans & Decision support tools
Friday, 24/Jul/2015:
2:15pm - 4:00pm

Session Chair: Morgane Colombert, Université Paris Est, EIVP, Lab'Urba, EA 3482
Location: Spot Room



Irene Nakonde1, Roger Maxi Maxi Ddungu2, Rehema Namuddu3, Shukuli Mukangango4

1Millennium Environmental Research Alliance (MERA), Uganda; 2Global Initiative Uganda (GIU)- Mukono, Uganda; 3Makarere University, kampala, Uganda; 4Regional Climate Change Support Initiative (RCCSI), Uganda

It is suffice to constantly assess community vulnerability and capacities with regard to climatic change and build their resilience through adaptation efforts, complementing mitigation efforts aimed at reducing the rate and magnitude of climate change. This framework has shifted from Disaster management to a sustainable approach of Disaster risk Reduction. Disasters are associated with extreme weather events. Climate change directly interacts with the exposure to climatic extremes. The challenge in the context of adaptation is to move from the understanding that climate change is occurring to concrete measures that reduce existing vulnerabilities of human and ecological systems. The focus in this study is the effects and responses of flood risk imposed by storm water among the urban poor living in the highly vulnerable shanty neighborhoods on the outskirts of Kampala city centre. It explores the underlying vulnerabilities of the two areas and the challenging problem of how to effectively shape human institutional responses to the risk of natural disasters with a special focus on floods. The social risk management and asset-based approaches on which the study is based provide a conceptual framework for understanding the sequential links between risks; human exposure and sensitivity; the impacts of risky events; and risk management strategies. The outcome of the study shows marked differences in the vulnerability factors and the management of flood related disasters in the two study areas. Furthermore, it was revealed that the indigenous coping mechanisms employed by the poor may become less effective as increasingly flimsy livelihood systems struggle to withstand disaster shocks. Strategies to reduce vulnerability should be entrenched in vulnerability analysis and greater understanding of both household-level and universal-response options that are available to decrease the vulnerable exposure to climate risk.

Keywords: Storm water, flood risk, Climate change adaptation, Vulnerability, Kampala, Disasters, shanty neighborhoods


Assessing the health impact of the Urban Heat Island of Birmingham, UK

Paul Anthony Fisher, John Thornes

University of Birmingham, United Kingdom

Although there has been some research on the impact of extreme weather on the number of ambulance call-out incidents, especially heat waves, there has been very little research on the impact of cold weather on ambulance call-outs and response times. In the UK, there is a target response rate of 75% of life threatening incidents (Category A) that must be responded to within 8 min. This research compares daily air temperature data with ambulance call-out data for Birmingham over a 5-year period (2009–2014). A significant relationship between extreme weather and increased ambulance call-out and response times can clearly be shown. Both hot and cold weather have a negative impact on response times. In December 2010 (the coldest December for more than 100 years), the response rate fell below 50% for 3 days in a row (18 December–20 December 2010) with a mean response time of 15 min. For every reduction of air temperature by 1°C there was a reduction of 1.3% in performance. Improved weather forecasting and the take up of adaptation measures, such as the use of winter tyres, are suggested for consideration as management tools to improve ambulance response resilience during extreme weather. Also it is suggested that ambulance response times could be used as part of the syndromic surveillance system at Public Health England (PHE).

The Urban Heat Island effect during heatwaves in Melbourne

Cassandra Denise Wilks Rogers1,2, Nigel Tapper1,2, Ailie Gallant1,2

1Monash University, Australia; 2CRC for Water Sensitive Cities

In urban areas the health of the population can be adversely affected during extreme heat conditions, leading to increases in hospital admissions and even deaths. Urban temperatures are regulated by both synoptic weather conditions and factors associated with the land surface. While urban areas are subject to higher than normal temperatures due to both heatwaves and the Urban Heat Island (UHI), it is not yet known the extent to which these co-occur. The city of Melbourne has a typical UHI of between -3.2°C and 6.0°C, yet its typical strength during heatwave conditions has until now been unknown. Therefore, this research examines the association between the UHI and heatwaves and whether they are exacerbated, or dampened, by an UHI effect. Temperature data from urban and rural locations in and around Melbourne are used to determine the magnitude of the UHI during heatwave and non-heatwave conditions. If there is some contribution from an UHI during extreme heating, there exists the potential to partially mitigate any associated health impacts through urban design.

Given the adverse impacts of heatwaves on health in urban areas it is imperative that any potential additive effect of the UHI on heatwaves is quantified. This is particularly pertinent given the future increases in heatwaves that are likely with human-induced climate change. The proportion of Australians living in capital cities is expected to increase into the future, with the percentage expected to rise from 66% in 2013 to 72% in 2053. The percentage of elderly and heat-vulnerable will also increase. When combined with this expectation of future increases in Australia’s urban population, increasing heatwaves will have the potential to increase the number of heat related deaths in urban areas in Australia. This research improves the current understanding of the interactions between heatwaves and urban areas to better inform decisions around heat sensitive urban planning and design and health adaptation and management during heatwave conditions in urban areas.

Communicating Climate Change to Urban Planners in the Great Lakes: Cities Impacts and Adaptation Tool

Evan Sheppard Mallen

University of Michigan Graham Sustainability Institute

Climate change is already impacting the Great Lakes region and cities are beginning to plan ahead to prepare themselves for bigger impacts in the future. But what changes can they expect and what can they do to adapt to these changes? The Great Lakes Adaptation Assessment for Cities (GLAA-C) project has created the Cities Impacts and Adaptation Tool (CIAT) to provide decision makers at the municipal level with the data they need to begin planning for a changing climate. The CIAT is an online climate adaptation planning support tool for decision makers at the municipal level in the Great Lakes region. It provides usable local-scale data such as demographic and socioeconomic data from the Canadian and US Census, current and projected climate trends, and adaptation strategies pulled from existing municipal planning documents from across North America. It also identifies a unique set of “climate peer” cities, or cities whose current climate matches your city’s projected climate, through an interactive map interface. The CIAT provides both current and projected climate trends at the climate division scale. To show how climate change has already affected the Great Lakes Region, the CIAT compares current seasonal and annual average temperature and precipitation for the period 1981-2010 to previous averages from 1951-1980. Additionally, the CIAT includes mid-century climate model projections for the period 2041-2070 to show how the user city's climate may continue to change in the future. For more precise information, the CIAT also provides climate station data for the Great Lakes Region. This includes average seasonal temperature and precipitation data at the city level, as well as information on days per year with extreme heat or precipitation. The seasonal averages are important for everyday operation, but it is these extreme events are the most harmful to human health and city infrastructure and recovery can be expensive. The CIAT matches this data to the user city’s nearest climate station for easy comparison. Using this information, the tool identifies a potential network of cities from a set of all cities in the Eastern US and Ontario to help you find relevant information. This network of "climate peer" cities, which are cities whose current climate matches the projected climate of the user's city, are displayed through an interactive map interface. By looking at the peer city's conditions, the user gains an idea of what they may expect to face in their own city in the future. The user may also opt to filter these climate peer cities by socioeconomic and demographic data to identify which of those cities are most similar to their own city. In order to provide usable on-the-ground solutions to your climate adaptation concerns, the CIAT also includes a searchable database of over 500 unique adaptation strategies pulled from 53 existing municipal plans, ranging from climate action plans to hazard mitigation and stormwater plans, from 24 cities across the US and Canada. The user can search this database by several criteria, such as climate impact or region. The CIAT also contains links to each plan so the user may further explore any strategy in a greater context. However, the CIAT is just the beginning. Planners in the Great Lakes region can use this tool to gain access to relevant climate data and adaptation strategies for their own use, but using their climate network to gain contacts in other cities can lead to great case study or even partnership opportunities moving forward. Publicly accessible tools like the CIAT will play a critical role in climate planning at all stages of city engagement and preparedness, especially in cities with limited time and resources. This presentation will run through the theory and features of the CIAT, as well as case studies of cities using it for planning purposes.

Science communication with analysis by stakeholder themselves

Tooru Sugiyama, Shintaro Kawahara, Fumiaki Araki, Keiko Takahashi

Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan

In general, detailed physical mechanisms of the urban climate knowledge are the black boxes for public, and stakeholders. Therefore, careful introduction and explanation are necessary when the topics are related with some kinds of stakeholders. In addition, it is frequently observed that the statement of the assessment submitted by different associations conflicts each other, even though these statements are completely analyzed with the scientific processes. These conflicts read confusions to stakeholders. One of the reasons to cause these conflicts is that the conditions of these analysis and model are not clear. To overcome these conflicts and confusion, we introduce some tools with which the stakeholder can analyze the topics by themselves. The procedure will cause concern to them, and they can deeply discuss the topics on the consensus conference using the data obtained from their own analysis. In this presentation, we introduce an outline of the tools. In addition, the importance of “bi-directionality” using the information and communication technology is also discussed.