International workshop on seasonal to decadal prediction CIC meetings
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  Monday, 13th May
    Session S1 Sources and levels of predictability
  09.00 Is AMOC more predictable than North Atlantic heat content ?
Grant Branstator, NCAR, Haiyan Teng
  09.30 Decadal predictability and forecast skill
George Boer, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, V. V. Kharin and W. J. Merryfield
  09.50 Influence of volcanic eruptions on bi-decadal variability of the North Atlantic in historical, initialised simulations and observations
Didier Swingedouw, CNRS, Juliette Mignot, Eric Guilyardi
  10.10 The origins of large-scale North Atlantic ocean circulation changes in the late 20th century : implications for decadal prediction
Stephen Yeager, NCAR, Gokhan Danabasoglu
  11.10 Anthropogenic aerosol forcing of Atlantic tropical storms
Nick Dunstone, Rosie Eade, The Met Office Hadley Centre, D. M. Smith, L. Hermanson, R. Eade, B. B. B. Booth
  11.30 Attribution of the 2001-2010 global temperature plateau
Virginie Guemas, Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3) - Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Isabel Andreu-Burillo, Muhammad Asif
  11.50 Land surface contribution to seasonal climate predictability: growing evidence but unfulfilled expectations
Hervé Douville, Météo-France, Yannick Peings, Eric Brun
  12.10 Investigating the variations in the predictability of the South African provincial seasonal climates through HadRM3P ensemble spreads
Kamoru A. Lawal, Climate System Analysis Group, Dept. of Env. and Geo. Science, Univ. of Cape Town, Daithi A Stone and Babatunde J Abiodun
  14.00 Seasonal to decadal predictability in mid and high northern latitudes
Torben Koenigk, SMHI, Christof König Beatty, Mihaela Caian, Ralf Döscher, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Klaus Wyser
  14.20 Regional variability in the potential predictability of Arctic climate on seasonal to interannual time scales
Jonathan Day, University of Reading, Steffen Tietsche, Ed Hawkins, Dan Hodson, Sarah Keeley
    Session S2 Assimilation, initialization, ensemble generation and bias
  14.40 A coupled ensemble ocean data assimilation system for seasonal prediction in Australia and its comparison with other state-of-the-art reanalyses
Oscar Alves, Bureau of Meteorology, Yonghong Yin, Li Shi, Debbie Hudson, Patricia Okely and Harry Hendon
  15.10 Ensemble Data Assimilation in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models : the Role of Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction
Zhengyu Liu, University of Wisconsin, Shu Wu, Shaoqing Zhang, Yun Liu, Feiyu Lu, Xinyao Rong
  16.00 Seasonal-decadal prediction with the EnKF and NorESM : a twin experiment
François Counillon, NERSC/BCCR, I. Bethke, N . Keenlyside, M. Bentsen, L. Bertino and F. Zheng
  16.20 Multiple Ocean Analysis Initialization for Ensemble ENSO Prediction using NCEP CFSv2
Bohua Huang, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies and George Mason Univeristy, Jieshun Zhu, Lawrence Marx, James L. Kinter III, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Rong-Hua Zhang, and Zeng-Zhen Hu
  16.40 An Assessment of Hindcast-Based Ocean Initial Conditions for Climate Prediction Experiments
Gokhan Danabasoglu, NCAR, Steve Yeager
  17.00 A comparison between ensemble hindcasts obtained from oceanic and from atmospheric perturbations in the MPI-ESM climate model
Camille Marini, Institut für Meereskunde, Universität Hamburg, Armin Koehl, Detlef Stammer
  Tuesday, 14th May
    Session S2 Assimilation, initialization, ensemble generation and bias
  08.50 Impact of initial conditions with respect to external forcing in the decadal predictions : a sensitivity experiment
Susanna Corti, ISAC-CNR & ECMWF, Tim Palmer, Magdalena Balmaseda, Antje Weisheimer, Wilco Hazeleger, Bert Wouters, Sybren Drijfhout, Dough Smith, Nick Dunstone, Holger Pohlmann, Jürgen Kröger, Jin-Song von Storch
  09.10 Multiyear climate predictions using two initialisation strategies
Wilco Hazeleger, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), V. Guemas, B. Wouters, S. Corti, I. Andreu-Burillio, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, K. Wyser, M. Caian, R. Haarsma
  09.30 Climate Drift in CCSM4 Decadal Prediction Experiment
Haiyan Teng, NCAR, Grant Branstator, Gerald Meehl, Alicia Karspeck, Steve Yeager
  09.50 The interpretation of biases in decadal climate predictions
Ed Hawkins, NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, Buwen Dong, Jon Robson, Rowan Sutton
  10.10 Analysis of model drift in a climate forecast system used for decadal predictions
Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, CERFACS/CNRS, Christophe Cassou, Elodie Fernandez
    Session S3 Seasonal-interannual forecast systems and results
  11.10 An extended re-forecast set for ECMWF system 4 in the context of EUROSIP
Tim Stockdale, ECMWF
  11.40 Long Range Predictability of the NAO and Atlantic Winter Weather
Adam Scaife, Met Office Hadley Centre, A.Arribas, E.Blockley, A.Brookshaw, R.T.Clark, N.Dunstone, R.Eade, D.Fereday, C.K.Folland, M.Gordon, L.Hermanson, J.R.Knight, C.MachLachlan, A.Maidens, M.Martin, A.K.Peterson, D.Smith, M.Vellinga, E.Wallace and A.Williams
  12.00 Improvement in winter seasonal predictability by including a stratospheric description in the forecast model
Michel Déqué, Météo-France, Jean-François Guérémy, David Saint-Martin
  12.20 Climate and seasonal forecast quality impact of increased horizontal ocean resolution
Isabel Andreu-Burillo, IC3/CFU, F. Doblas-Reyes, V. Guemas, M. Asif
  14.00 An Assessment of the Skill of GEOS-5 Seasonal forecasts
Yoo-Geun Ham, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA/GSFC, Siegfried Schubert, and Michele M. Rienecker
  14.20 Towards a Seasonal Prediction System using MPI-ESM
Daniela Domeisen, University of Hamburg, Institute of Oceanography, Kristina Fröhlich, Wolfgang Müller, Michael Botzet, Holger Pohlmann, Luis Kornblueh, Steffen Tietsche, Dirk Notz, Robert Piontek, Johanna Baehr
  14.40 Predictability of ENSO and IOD and their global teleconnections
Swadhin Behera, JAMSTEC, Takeshi Doi, Yukio Masumoto, and Toshio Yamagata
  15.00 Short-term climate extremes: prediction skill and predictability
Emily Becker, Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/NWS/NCEP), Huug van den Dool, Malaquias Pena
  16.00 Land and atmosphere initial states influence surface temperature forecast in dynamical seasonal predictions
Stefano Materia, Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Andrea Borrelli, Alessio Bellucci, Silvio Gualdi
  16.20 Impact of snow initialization in coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal forecasts
Yvan Orsolini, Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), R. Senan, A. Carrasco, G. Balsamo, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, F. Vitart, A. Weisheimer, and R.E. Benestad
  16.40 Seasonal forecasts of the Arctic sea ice with CNRM-CM5.1
Matthieu Chevallier, CNRM-GAME, Météo-France, CNRS, David Salas y Mélia, Virginie Guémas, Agathe Germe, Michel Déqué, Aurore Voldoire
  17.00 The North American Multi-Model Ensemble Intraseasonal to Interannual Prediction System
Ben Kirtman, University of Miami
  Wednesday, 15th May
    Session S4 Decadal forecast systems and results
  08.40 Regional forecast quality of the CMIP5 multi-model decadal climate predictions
Francisco Doblas-Reyes, ICREA and Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Andreu-Burillo, Y. Chikamoto, J. García-Serrano), V. Guémas, M. Kimoto, T. Mochizuki, L.R.L. Rodrigues, G.J. van Oldenborgh
  09.10 Improved predictions of global climate in the decade ahead using a new version of the Met Office Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction System
Jeff Knight, Met Office Hadley Centre, Martin Andrews, Doug Smith, Alberto Arribas, Nick Dunstone, Craig Maclachlan, Drew Peterson, Adam Scaife, and Andrew Williams
  09.30 Results from the CFSv2 CMIP5 Decadal Forecasts
Edwin Schneider, George Mason University and COLA
  09.50 Decadal predictions by FGOALS-g2
Bin Wang, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Mimi Liu,Yongqiang Yu, Lijuan Li
  10.10 Added-value from initialization in skilful predictions of North Atlantic multi-decadal variability
Javier Garcia-Serrano, Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat (LOCEAN-IPSL), UPMC, Virginie Guemas, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
  11.10 Skillful predictions of Atlantic multi-year to decadal variability in the GFDL forecast system
Rym Msadek, GFDL/NOAA, Gabriel Vecchi, Tom Delworth, Tony Rosati, Shaoqing Zhang
  11.30 Multiyear predictions of the North Atlantic variability - the impact of increased ocean model resolution
Daniela Matei, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Johann Jungclaus, Wolfgang Müller, Holger Pohlmann, Ketan Kulkarni, Helmuth Haak, Jochem Marotzke
  11.50 Predictability of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic in the mid 1990s and its climate impacts
Jon Robson, NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, Rowan Sutton and Doug Smith
  12.10 Is Atlantic multi-decadal variability about to change phase ?
Leon Hermanson, Met Office, Martin Andrews, Nick Dunstone, Rosie Eade, Jeff Knight, Adam Scaife, Doug Smith
  14.00 Multi-year prediction skill of Atlantic hurricane activity in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts using a statistical index
Louis-Philippe Caron, Meteorology Department, Stockholm University, Colin G. Jones, Francisco Doblas-Reyes
  14.20 Decadal prediction for the Arctic
Klaus Wyser, Rossby Centre - SMHI, Mihaela Caian, Torben Königk, Colin Jones
    Session S5 Forecast verification, calibration and combination
  14.40 Assessing skill from retrospective forecasts
Doug Smith, Met Office, Rosie Eade, Nick Dunstone, Leon Hermanson, Holger Pohlmann, Adam Scaife
  15.10 Reliability of seasonal-to-decadal forecasts from a seamless prediction perspective
Antje Weisheimer, ECMWF & University of Oxford, Susanna Corti
  16.00 Probabilistic verification of decadal CMIP5 hindcast experiments
Sophie Stolzenberger, Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, R. Glowienka-Hense, A. Hense, T. Spangehl, A. Mazurkiewicz, M. Schröder, R. Hollmann, F. Kaspar
  16.20 Reliable probabilities through statistical post-processing of ensemble predictions
Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Stéphane Vannitsem
  16.40 Variation in the reliability of ensemble predictions of SSTs from seasonal to decadal timescales
Chun Kit Ho, Ed Hawkins, NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, Len Shaffrey, Jochen Broecker, Leon Hermanson, James Murphy, Doug Smith
  17.00 An empirical-dynamical South America seasonal precipitation prediction system
Caio Coelho, Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC), Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
  Thursday, 16th May
    Session S6 Targeted predictions, downscaling and applications
  08.40 How can Seasonal to Decadal forecasts be useful to the power sector ?
Laurent Dubus, EDF R&D, Julien NAJAC, Sylvie PAREY
  09.10 Is there value in very long lead dynamical seasonal precipitation forecasts ?
William Merryfield, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Woo-Sung Lee, Slava Kharin
  09.30 Seasonal Forecast in France and application to hydrology
Stéphanie Singla, Jean-Pierre Céron, Direction de la Climatologie, Météo-France, E. Martin, F. Regimbeau, M. Déqué, F. Habets and J.-P.Vidal
  09.50 Multi-model seasonal forecasting of global drought onset
Xing Yuan, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Eric F. Wood
  10.10 An Integrated Seasonal Flood Outlook for Agriculture Risk Management
SHM Fakhruddin, Asian Institute of Technology, Prof. Dr. M.S. Babel, Prof. Dr. Francesco Ballio
  11.10 Seasonal Climatic and Hydrologic Modeling and Prediction in the Yellow River Basin in China
Shourong Wang, China Meteorological Administration, Yiping YAO, Youye Liang, Ruby Leung
  11.30 Decadal predictions for Europe: Regional downscaling of the MiKlip decadal experiments
Hendrik Feldmann, Karlsruhe Insititute of Technology (KIT), Sebastian Mieruch, Marianne Uhlig, Claus-Jürgen Lenz, Kevin Sieck, Christoph Kottmeier
  11.50 Downscaling seasonal forecasts over South Africa
Christopher Lennard, University of Cape Town
  12.10 Stochastic simulation as an alternative (or supplement) to decadal predictions
Arthur Greene, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Lisa Goddard
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