International Conference on Ensemble Methods in Geophysical Sciences CIC meetings

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  Oral presentations
  Olivier Talagrand (Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace pour les Sciences de l'Environnement Global (IPSL), Paris, France)

  Session 1. Particle Filters and Applications
  Arnaud Doucet (Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, UK)
Block Sampling Proposals for Particle Filters

Chris Snyder (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA)
Performance bounds for particle filters using the "optimal" proposal density

Matthias Morzfeld (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, USA), Alexandre Chorin, Robert Miller, Yvette Spitz and Brad Weir (Brad Weir: Oregon State University, Corvallis, USA)
Implicit Sampling for Data Assimilation in Geophysics

Emmanuel Cosme Université Joseph Fourier, Grenoble, France) and Chris Snyder (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA)
A deterministic, fully non Gaussian analysis scheme for ensemble filters: the Multivariate Rank Histogram Filter

Christoph Bergemann (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Cologne,Germany)
Particle filter based data assimilation into an air quality model

Svetlana Dubinkina (Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-La-Neuve, Belgium), Hugues Goosse, Violette Zunz and Yoann Sallaz-Damaz
Reconstructions of the climate states over last centuries using particle filtering

Rihab Mechri (1), Catherine Ottlé (1), Olivier Pannekoucke (2), Abdelaziz Kallel (3) and Ahmed Ben Hamida (4)
(1) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace des sciences de l'environnement, Orme des Merisiers, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France - (2) CNRM, Météo-France, 31057, Toulouse, France - (3) High Institute of Electronic and Communication of Sfax, Tunisia - (4) National Engineering school of Sfax, Tunisia

Sub-pixel temperatures estimation based on the assimilation of coarse resolution. Thermal Infrared data using particle filtering

Melanie Ades (University of Reading, Reading, UK) and Peter Jan van Leeuwen
Particle filters in high-dimensional systems

Rafal Wojcik (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA), Dennis McLaughlin, Hamed Alemohammad and Dara Entekhabi
Ensemble based fusion of noisy images

  Session 2. Miscellaneous
  Ashwanth Srinivasan (University of Miami, Coral Gables, USA), Mohamed Iskandarani, William C. Thacker and Omar M. Knio
Data assimilation using a polynomial chaos based ensemble

Heikki Järvinen (Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland), Pirkka Ollinaho, Marko Laine, Antti Solonen and Heikki Haario
Ensemble prediction systems in parameter estimation and forecast skill optimization

Frédéric Chevallier (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace des sciences de l'environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France)
On the parallelization of CO2-flux inversion schemes

Ralf Giering and Michael Vossbeck (FastOpt, Hamburg, Germany)
Performance gains by computing ensemble responses simultaneously

Lewis Mitchell (University of Vermon - USA. Georg Gottwald (University of Sydney - Australia)
Ensemble data assimilation using stochastic homogenization in a slow-fast system with tipping points

  Session 3. Probabilistic Prediction
  Tim Palmer (University of Oxford, UK)
Towards the Probabilistic Weather and Climate Prediction Simulator

Luca Delle Monache (National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR, USA), F. Anthony Eckel (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, USA), Badrinath Nagarajan (NCAR), Daran Rife (GL Garrad Hassan, USA), Keith Searight (NCAR), Don Berchoff (NOAA), Martin Charron (Environment Canada, Canada), Ronal Frenette (Environment Canada), Jason Knievel (NCAR), Tim Mcclung (NOAA) and John Pace (Army Test and Evaluation Command, USA)
Probabilistic Weather Prediction with an Analog Ensemble

Michael Scheuerer (Heidelberg University, Germany)
Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics and Minimum CRPS Estimation

Thomas Hamill (NOAA Earth System Research Lab, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, USA), Jeffrey S. Whitaker, Don Murray and Gary Bates
NOAA's multi-decadal global ensemble reforecast data set

Leonard Smith (London School of Economics, UK)
Guidance Information or Probability Forecast : Where do Ensembles Aim ?

Laurent Descamps (Météo-France/DIRIC, Toulouse, France) and Carole Labadie (Météo-France/GMAP/RECYF, Toulouse, France)
Ensemble post-processing methods for short-range ensemble forecasts

  Session 4. Kalman and Hybrid Filters. Theoretical Aspects
  Marc Bocquet (Université Paris-Est, CEREA joint laboratory Ecole des Ponts ParisTech and EdF R&D, France and INRIA, Paris Rocquencourt research centre, France
Accounting for sampling errors in ensemble Kalman filtering

Shin'ya Nakano and Genta Ueno (The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan)
Hybrid approach of ensemble transform and importance sampling for non-linear data assi

David Livings and Peter Jan van Leeuwen (University of Reading, Reading, UK)
Weighted Ensemble Square Root Filters for Non-linear, Non-Gaussian, Data Assimilation

François Le Gland (INRIA Rennes, France) and Valérie Monbet (Université de Rennes 1, France)
Large sample asymptotics for the ensemble Kalman filter

  Session 5. Kalman and Hybrid Filters. Continuation and Applications
  Sébastien Beyou, Anne Cuzol and Étienne Mémin (INRIA Rennes, France)
Weighted Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter for Image Assimilation

Stefano Migliorini (University of Reading, Reading, UK)
Information-based data selection for ensemble data assimilation

Georg Gottwald (University of Sydney, Australia), Lewis Mitchell and Sebastian Reich
Constraining overestimation of error covariances in ensemble Kalman filters

África Periáñez (Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach am Main, Germany), Hendrik Reich and Roland Potthast
Adaptive Localization for Ensemble Methods in Data Assimilation

Tuomo Kauranne, Idrissa Amour and Zubeda Mussa (Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT), Lappeenranta, Finland)
Variational Ensemble Kalman filtering applied to shallow water equations

Bertrand Bonan (Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann, Institut national de recherche en informatique et en automatique, Université Joseph Fourier, INRIA/UJF, Grenoble, France), Maëlle Nodet (Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann, INRIA/UJF, Grenoble, France) and Catherine Ritz (Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l'Environnement CNRS / UJF Grenoble, France)
Ensemble Methods for ice sheet model initialisation

Sébastien Barthélémy (Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique, CERFACS, Toulouse, France). Sophie Ricci (CERFACS, Toulouse, France), Olivier Pannekoucke (CNRM-GAME URA 1357, Toulouse, France), Olivier Thual (URA1875/CERFACS and INPT, CNRS, IMFT, Toulouse, France) and Pierre-Olivier Malaterre (UMR G-EAU, Irstea, Montpellier, France)
Data Assimilation On A Flood Wave Propagation Model : Emulation Of An Ensemble Kalman Filter Algorithm

Umer Altaf1, Troy Butler2, Xiaodong Luo1, Clint Dawson2, Talea Mayo2 and Ibrahim Hoteit1
1 King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
2 Insitute for Computational Engineering and Sciences (ICES), University of Texas at Austin, Texas 78712, USA

Robust Ensemble filtering for efficient storm surge forecasting

George Craig (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Germany), M. Würsch, H. Lange and M. Haslehner
Applying an ensemble Kalman filter to complex convective cloud fields in a hierarchy of models

  Session 6. Ensemble Variational Assimilation
  Andrew Lorenc (Met Office, Exeter, UK), Neill Bowler and Peter Jermey
4D-Ensemble-Var - a Development Path for the Met Office's Data Assimilation

Gérald Desroziers, Jean-Thomas Camino and Loïk Berre (CNRM-GAME, Météo-France and CNRS, Toulouse, France)
A possible implementation of the 4D-Var based on a 4D-ensemble

Milija Zupanski (Colorado State University, USA)
Towards the development of hybrid variational-ensemble data assimilation: Minimization, Hessian preconditioning, and static error covariance model

Thomas Auligné (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Colorado, USA)
An Integrated Ensemble/Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation System

Thibaut Montmerle (CNRM-GAME, Météo-France and CNRS, Toulouse, France) and Pauline Martinet
Forecast errors in clouds and precipitation: diagnosis and modelling for the assimilation of cloudy radiances and radar data in the AROME model at convective scale

Stephen Pring (Met Office, Exeter, UK) and David Fairbairn
Comparing 4D-VAR and ensemble-VAR assimilation methods within toy models

Mohamed Jardak (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, ENS, Paris, France) and Olivier Talagrand
Bayesianity of Ensemble Variational Assimilation

Yann Michel CNRM-GAME, Météo-France and CNRS - FRANCE
Applying tests of univariate Gaussianity on short range forecasts from an ensemble of variational assimilations

Ricardo Todling NASA/GMAO - USA. A. El Akkraoui, R. M. Errico, J. Guo, J. Kim, D. Kliest, D. F. Parrish, M. Suarez, A. Trayanov, Yannick Tremolet, J. Whitaker and B. Zhang
Experimenting with the GMAO 4D Data Assimilation

Max Yaremchuk (Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, USA) and Dmitri Nechaev
Localization of the ensemble covariances using the diffusion operator approach

  Session 7. (Quasi-)Operational Ensemble Prediction Systems
  Roberto Buizza (ECMWF, Reading, UK) (ECMWF)
20 years of ensemble prediction at ECMWF

Carole Labadie (Météo-France, Toulouse, France) and Descamps, P. Cebron, Y. Michel, L.Raynaud, M. Boisserie, L. Berre, G. Desroziers and E. Bazile
Initialization with ensemble data assimilation and singular vectors in PEARP, the Météo-France ensemble prediction system

Jing Chen (The Center of Numerical Weather Prediction, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China), TIAN Hua, DENG Guo, LI Xiaoli, GONG Jiandong, LI Yinglin, WANG Xiaocong and HU Jiangkai
The Introduction of Ensemble Prediction System at CMA and its application in monsoon season

Masashi Ujiie (Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan), Haruki Yamaguchi, Masakazu Higaki and Masayuki Kyouda
Current status and development of medium range EPS at JMA

Christoph Gebhardt (Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach am Main, Germany), Susanne E. Theis, Zied Ben Bouallegue, Andreas Roepnack, Nina Schuhen and Michael Buchhold
COSMO-DE-EPS - an operational convection-permitting ensemble prediction system for the atmosphere

Jonathan Flowerdew (Met Office, Exeter, UK)
MOGREPS ensemble forecasting

Piers Buchanan (Met Office, Exeter, UK) and Ken Mylne
The Use of Met Office Ensemble Model data to Generate Severe Weather Forecasts

Christopher Cunningham (Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies (CPTEC/INPE) Brazil, Jose Paulo Bonatti, Pedro Leite da Silva Dias
Improvements of the eigenvector method to produce a ensemble of perturbed initial conditions for the CPTEC Ensemble Prediction System

François Bouttier (Météo-France CNRM-GAME 42 Av Coriolis 31057 Toulouse, France), Olivier Nuissier, Laure Raynaud and Benoît Vié
Regional short-range ensemble prediction with the AROME atmospheric system

  Session 8. (Quasi-)Operational Assimilation Systems
  Loïk Berre (CNRM-GAME, Météo-France and CNRS, Toulouse, France), Gérald Desroziers, Hubert Varella, Laure Raynaud, Carole Labadie and Laurent Descamps
Variational ensemble data assimilation at Météo-France for covariance modelling and ensemble prediction

Anna Shlyaeva (Hydrometeorological Research Center of Russia, Moscow, Russia), Vasily Mizyak and Mikhail Tolstykh
Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter assimilation scheme for the global atmospheric model SL-AV

Amal El Akkraoui (NASA/Global Modelling and Assimilation Office/Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Greenbelt, USA) and Ricardo Todling
The GMAO 3DVAR-Hybrid Data Assimilation System

Yonghong Yin (The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, and the Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia), Oscar Alves and Debra Hudson
Ensemble data assimilation/initialisation for intra seasonal to seasonal prediction using POAMA at the Bureau of Meteorology

Pau Escribà (ECMWF, Reading, UK, and Agencia Estatal de Meteorología, Barcelona, Spain), Massimo Bonavita, Mats Hamrud, Lars Isaksen and Paul Poli
LETKF compared to 4DVAR for assimilation of surface pressure observations in IFS (ECMWF)

Nils Gustafsson (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden) and Jelena Bojarova (Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway)
Sensitivity to the ensemble generation approach in hybrid 4D-Variational ensemble data assimilation scheme in HIRLAM

Christoph Schraff (Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach am Main, Germany), Hendrik Reich and Andreas Rhodin
Development of a LETKF for Km-scale Ensemble Data Assimilation for the COSMO model

  Session 9. Identification and Representation of Model Errors
  Carla Cardinali (ECMWF, Reading, UK), Nedjeljka Zagar, Gabor Radnoti and Roberto Buizza
Representing model uncertainties in the ensemble data assimilation

Renaud Marty (Chaire de recherche EDS en prévisions et actions hydrologiques,Département de génie civil et de génie des eaux, Université Laval,, Vincent Fortin (Recherche en prévision numérique environnementale, Environnement Canada, Dorval, Canada), Heri Kuswanto (Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Institute Technology of Sepuluh Nopember (ITS), Surabaya 60111, East Java, Indonesia), Anne-Catherine Favre (Grenoble-INP/ENSE3, Laboratoire d'Etude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement (LTHE), UMR 5564, Grenoble, F-38041, France), Eric Parent (Dpt. of Statistics, UMR518 AgroParis- Tech/INRA, 16 rue C Bernard, 75005 Paris, France)
Bayesian Processor of Ensemble Members: combining the Bayesian Processor of Output with Bayesian Model Averaging for reliable weather forecasting

So-Young Ha (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA), Chris Snyder and Judith Berner
Model error representation in mesoscale WRF-DART cycling

Alison Rudd (University of Reading, Reading, UK), Laura Baker, Stefano Migliorini and Ross Bannister
Representation of model error in convective-scale ensembles

Kirstin Kober (Meteorologisches Institut Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München,Germany), George C. Craig, Tobias Selz and Annette Förster
Stochastic parameterisations in multi-scale ensemble systems

Alfons Callado (Spanish Meteorological Agency, Barcelona, Spain), G. Shutts, J--J.Morcrette and R. Forbes
Stochastic Perturbation of Physical Parameterization Tendencies and Model Uncertainty

  Session 10. Further Developments
  Hailiang Du, Leonard A. Smith and Emma Suckling (The London School of Economics and Political Science, UK)
Pseudo-orbit Gradient Descent Ensemble Method

Vivien Mallet (INRIA & CEREA, France), Sergiy Zhuk (IBM Research, Dublin, Ireland) and Alexander Nakonechniy (Taras Shevchenko National University of Kiev, Kiev, The Ukraine)
Ensemble forecast of analyses with uncertainty estimation

C. Santos (Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) - Spain. ), A. Amo, E. Abellán, A. Callado, P. Escribà, J. Sancho, J. Simarro
AEMET-SREPS : past, present and future

Ernest Koffi (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace des sciences de l'environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), S.Kuppel, P. Peylin, F.Chevallier and D. Santaren
Variational vs. ensemble strategies to optimize the uncertain parameters of a terrestrial biosphere model

Ehouarn Simon (NERSC - Norway), Annette Samuelsen, Laurent Bertino, Dany Dumont
Estimation of positive sum-to-one constrained parameters with ensemble-based Kalman filters : application to an ocean ecosystem model

  Session 11. Evaluation and Validation
  Mark Buehner (Environment Canada, Canada), Josée Morneau and Cécilien Charrette
A comparison of Ensemble-Variational data assimilation and 4D-Var for global deterministic weather prediction

Simon Lang and Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF, Reading, UK)
On the reliability of ensemble spread generated by singular vectors

Tilmann Gneiting (Heidelberg University, Germany), Roman Schefzik and Thordis Thorarinsdottir
Ensemble copula coupling: Towards physically consistent, calibrated probabilistic forecasts of spatio-temporal weather trajectories

Giovanni Leoncini (Met Office, Exeter, UK) and Nigel. Roberts
Convective scale ensemble at the Met Office Part II: new tools for assessment and evaluation

Matthias Grzeschik (WESS-Water & Earth System Science Competence Center c/o University of Tübingen, Germany), Thomas Schwitalla, Hans-Stefan Bauer and Volker Wulfmeyer
Capability of WRF 3D-Var and DART EnKF to represent covariance structures

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